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코로나바이러스 COVID-19에 대한 예측(Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19)


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코로나바이러스 COVID-19에 대한 예측(Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19)

Fotios Petropoulos, Spyros Makridakis 저 | 아진

출간일
2020-07-14
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한줄서평

콘텐츠 소개

What will be the global impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19)? Answering
this question requires accurate forecasting the spread of confirmed cases as well as
analysis of the number of deaths and recoveries. Forecasting, however, requires
ample historical data.
At the same time, no prediction is certain as the future rarely repeats itself in the
same way as the past. Moreover, forecasts are influenced by the reliability of the
data, vested interests, and what variables are being predicted. Also, psychological
factors play a significant role in how people perceive and react to the danger from
the disease and the fear that it may affect them personally. This paper introduces
an objective approach to predicting the continuation of the COVID-19 using a
simple, but powerful method to do so. Assuming that the data used is reliable and
that the future will continue to follow the past pattern of the disease, our
forecasts suggest a continuing increase in the confirmed COVID-19 cases with
sizable associated uncertainty.
The risks are far from symmetric as underestimating its spread like a pandemic
and not doing enough to contain it is much more severe than overspending and
being over careful when it will not be needed. This paper describes the timeline of
a live forecasting exercise with massive potential implications for planning and
decision making and provides objective forecasts for the confirmed cases of
COVID-19.

목차

제 1편 : 코로나-19의 정의
1. 코로나바이러스감염증-19(COVID-19) 정보 7
2. 코로나바이러스 분류 및 특성 9
3. 코로나 바이러스 전자현미경 형태 11
4. 코로나바이러스 구조 (Covid-19 Organization) 13
5. 코로나19: 환경에 지속적인 영향을 미칠까? 19
6. 치료법(Therapeutical Method) 22
제 2편 : 연구논문
Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19
Abstract 23
Introduction 23
3 Discussion and conclusion 24
Author Contributions 29
References 29

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